Asia

Only The Brave Should Enter Intra-Asia Shipping Waters

The piece below was taken from Transport Trackers, a boutique transport research firm started by ex-Citi Asia transport head Charles de Trenck in Hong Kong. We've included only excerpts and brief summary comments, the full piece can be found at their site.

TT:

Container veteran Niels K Balling contributed this think piece on Intra‐Asia containers... Mr Balling notes, in passing, that the intra‐Asia market is so big and complex that trying to boil it down in this fashion perhaps does not do it justice, so he apologizes in advance.

Intra-Asia container trade has become the largest region for world trade.

What's Driving Australia Right Now

Note that Australia is only one of three developed nations that will show positive GDP growth in 2009.

It has just half the unemployment rate of the U.S., sells China raw materials, and has a dynamic domestic economy.

Yet real estate, stocks, and the Aussie dollar have been soaring most recently.

Is there now a giant bubble down under?

We see it more like a giant wave.

There are risks, such as a China slow-down, but ride Australia correctly and you could do well even if some of the froth eventually comes falling down.

Long-term a lot of things are looking good. The stock market remains well below its highs. The Aussie dollar is stronger, but on a long-term time frame hasn't run that much. Regardless of a China collapse, Australia's top natural resource exports are key for the industrialization of developing economies. It's also full of gold, which doesn't hurt.

Why It's All Good In Australia >>>

China's 14 Dominoes of Destruction

Yes, China has delivered the world's most spectacular economic growth story in history.

And whatever your political beliefs, the Chinese have lifted millions out of poverty, more than any aid organization in such a short period of time. China also remains a fascinating nation with one of the richest cultural heritages in the world.

Yet the government has massively distorted the nation's economic system over the last few decades, leading to fourteen dangerous Chinese excesses, each of which is only sustainable by inflating the others!

Watch how each domino falls into the next one.

China's Fourteen Dominoes of Destruction >>>

China Can't Cool Down Its Steel Bubble

 Still going... we're still waiting to see the massive value destruction that overcapacity could realize.

Excellent FRONTLINE Documentary: Young And Restless In China

Maybe save this for the weekend when you have more time.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/youngchina/

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Highlights From The Money Game

As stock markets kept rallying, the consensus has increasingly been forced to accept the fact that the global economy has indeed improved. Still, dollar weakness and gold strength shows that the US government's massive monetary stimulus comes at a cost. Check out recent highlights from The Money Game below.

-Vincent

Best Bull Argument for the Chinese Market

The best bull argument I can find in regards to the Chinese market is that the government has little choice but to keep liquidity flowing, even if they know this is will be negative in the long-term. 

Since a government "investigation" can't possibly yield much, and since they're saying flat-out that lending won't be capped, this sounds incredibly bullish. China isn't going to take away the punchbown -- as we've noted, they just can't. When even the slightest hint of lending curbs recently brought up, the market tanked nearly 7%. Imagine if the threats were real. The bubble must roll on.

The government may fear the potential repercussions of deflating asset prices in the short term so much that they are willing to ignore the longer term consequences of fueling asset prices further. Fair enough, sounds like standard human nature when it comes to politics and just today Chinese officials have said they will investigate price gains but won't cap new lending. Thus if you openly regard this as a punt on the government's actions, fair enough we can't argue that. But...

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